I predicted that the census will be another palava in Nigeria like the elections. Counting Nigerians have always been tricky because of our inherent fault lines. census took place over 1952 and 1953 and returned a total of 30.4 million. This was taken as the benchmark for political representation in the country’s parliament in preparation for independence in 1960. The population of the Northern Region was 55.4% of the total, that of Eastern Nigeria 23.7% and that of the Western Region, including Lagos and the Mid-West, 20.9%. This gave Northern Nigeria 174 seats, Eastern Nigeria 73 and Western Nigeria (including Lagos and Mid-West) 65 seats in parliament before independence.
The first post-independence census was conducted in May 1962 by the Federal Census Office in the Ministry of Economic Development. It was better organised but the provisional figure of 45.1 million showed that the southern regions combined had a higher population than Northern Region. This was controversial particularly from political point of view.
The 1962 census was cancelled, and a recount was ordered in 1963. Its management was also removed from the Federal Office of Statistics, marking the beginning of direct political interference in the process.
A special Census Board was set up, census staff numbers increased, and more resources were provided. But at the end of the count, a population figure of 55.7 million was recorded, a difference of nearly 11 million.
This led to a slight redistribution of power in favour of Western Nigeria. Eastern Nigeria and the Mid-West lost five seats in parliament.
This reversal led to strident criticism of the 1963 results. Politico-linguistic rivalry brewed until it exploded in the civil war of 1967-70, which devastated much of the South East and started military rule in Nigeria.
The 1973 census returned a total population of 79.8 million with the North making up 64.4% which was a subject of controversy. In 1989, the National Population Commission was created by military decree to organise the 1991 census in preparation for handover to a civilian regime. The military government announced that the 1991 census figures would not be used for the upcoming elections, thereby reducing the political tension and the usual incentive to inflate population figures.
The board of the commission consisted of seven professionals who did not belong to any political party. Each member was responsible for one census zone which consisted of a mix of states. This reduced the incentive to inflate figures.
For the first time, adequate maps were produced and used for the 250,000 enumeration areas. Instruments and processes were also tested in advance.
The 1991 census published a total population of 88.5 million, much lower than projections based on the inflated 1963 census.
The most recent census in Nigeria was conducted in 2006 and was plagued by political interference from design through to implementation. The population estimate was 140 million people. The results were criticised and subject to litigation. Already we have discordant tunes as regards the coming census, Gov Ortom of Benue currently has enunciated the problem of IDPs and why the census should not continue, as we speak the census has been postponed because of the umbrage in some quarters The questions is will the 2023 census be any different?.Time will tell.
